By Our Correspondent
NEW DELHI – As the nation enters the final phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with less than two weeks left in the voting schedule spanning one-and-a-half months, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s narrative of “landslide victory” and “400 paar” (beyond 400 seats) is gradually mellowing down. Though the BJP leaders are reluctant to admit it, there is something more than the voters’ fatigue and the challenge posed by the combined Opposition.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s declining popularity even among the BJP’s core vote base, the foot soldiers of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the proponents of Hindutva has prompted him to shift his campaign discourse from the development planks to the communal themes of mutton and fish, Hindu women’s Mangal Sutra, more children produced by Muslims, infiltration by Muslims and the Congress’s plans to snatch reservation from SC, ST and OBCs and give it to Muslims.
The voter turnout in all the states where the polling has taken place so far has been lower than the previous elections. This has raised a serious concern within the BJP that some of its core supporters are staying away from the electoral fight. While making tall claims about a third term in office, the BJP has faced a stronger opposition than anticipated in some states, compelling even the political observers to change their forecasts.
Any shortfall of a clear mandate of 300 seats for the BJP is going to reflect poorly on Modi. The prospects for the BJP getting above 362 seats in the Parliament, which is the two-thirds majority figure, have been severely affected ever since the polling started. The euphoria over the construction and consecration of the Ram temple built on the site of the demolished Babri Masjid has clearly faded, dashing the BJP’s hope for reaping political benefit from a highly contentious matter which has disturbed communal harmony.
The lack of employment opportunities and the increasing gap between the rich and the poor seem to be replacing religious fervour in several parts of the country. Jobless youth in Haryana have held street protests against the BJP during the election campaign, while in Maharashtra, farmers irked by a ban on onion exports have canvassed support for an Opposition candidate.
Some of the unhappiness of the voters is resulting in a swing to the Opposition or in apathy, according to the political analysts. The RSS has swung into action and started organising meetings, outreach campaigns and making renewed push to remind voters about ensuring the election of a full-majority government. The RSS Pracharaks are hosting neighbourhood meetings in their homes to persuade people to go out and vote.
In Haryana and Rajasthan, the youngsters have criticised the government’s decision to cut back on recruitment to the Army and launch the controversial Agnipath scheme for temporary recruitments. Amid the shrinking job opportunities, the youths are lining up for employment in Israel which has turned to India to resolve the issue of labour shortage following its attack on Gaza.
The farmers who voted for the BJP in 2019 believing that Modi would double their income are confronting a painful reality that their incomes have halved. There is a considerable disapproval of the government in Bihar, one of the poorest states which has fallen behind as incomes of the middle class have increased in other parts of the country.
Together, Maharashtra, Bihar and Haryana account for nearly 100 seats in the Parliament, but the discontent against the BJP prevalent in these important states is quite visible for the analysts to conclude that the BJP is facing the ire of the people in addition to the Opposition’s challenge. The Opposition’s INDIA bloc has said that its campaign rallies are drawing good crowds, while Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is predicting that the alliance will unseat the BJP and form the government at the Centre.
The stock markets fell sharply last week on the possibility of political instability before recovering later. The underground betting market is currently predicting that the BJP will win fewer than 300 seats, but it may get the 272 seats required for a majority in the House. The success of the Opposition parties will depend on how far they are able to turn the jobs, inflation, unemployment and the deteriorating economic situation into the electoral issues.
The INDIA bloc believes that Modi’s changing campaign rhetoric has given an indication of the change of guard at the Centre. The diversity of the people has also become an obstacle in Modi’s dream project, as various parts of the country have demonstrated their allegiance to their dominant regional parties. The INDIA bloc has very wisely set its agenda to oust the Modi regime in order to turn the nation away from the dangerous economic, social, cultural and political direction being imparted by him.
With wide sections of the people coming together, and broad sections of the political Opposition coordinating its effort to challenge Modi’s policies, and in light of the enthusiastic public response that has followed, serious doubts have surfaced even in the higher echelons of the ruling party, and the ruling establishment as a whole, that its victory is not going to be a foregone conclusion.
In a significant observation, veteran Congress leader and former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has said that looking at the atmosphere created in the Lok Sabha elections, it seems that now the public itself is fighting the elections against the NDA. “Even though the world’s largest empire Britain ruled us, the people of India never liked dictatorship and arrogance and always stood up against it. I have felt this atmosphere in my visits to several states, but I am happy to note that it has started from Rajasthan where the public started teaching a lesson in the first phase itself,” Gehlot said.
“With every phase, the position of BJP and NDA has worsened. The country will not be surprised if the BJP gets less than 200 seats,” Gehlot wrote in his comments on social media platform, X (formerly Twitter).
Political strategist Prashant Kishor has also said that BJP is not going to get a single vote in the name of Ram temple. “Ram Mandir is a big issue for BJP supporters. I didn’t find anyone who was not giving the BJP vote in the name of Ram Mandir earlier and will vote based on it today… There is no incremental benefit,” Kishor said in a television interview.
Taking a sharp aim at Modi, Kishor said that Modi may not face any challenge from the Opposition parties but he will definitely face the wrath of people of the country. “People are observing in this election that brand Modi is not invincible. It’s not like no one can challenge him. People are giving him a challenge, whether a political party or a leader challenges him or not,” he said, adding that the opposition from the people of the country is not going to be weak.
Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav has accused the BJP of endangering the Indian Constitution and described the 2024 Lok Sabha election as a fight to save democratic and constitutional values. “Whenever the BJP comes to power, it takes decisions which harm the public. This time, the Constitution is in danger. This Lok Sabha election is a fight to save the Constitution. Only if this Constitution is saved, our rights will be saved,” Yadav said at an election rally in Uttar Pradesh’s Sambhal recently.
“The public will change the BJP this time. The ruling party put the future of youths into darkness – neither gave jobs nor employment. The BJP government betrayed farmers. It has also continuously increased inflation, made diesel and petrol costlier, putting all sections into trouble,” Yadav said, while seeking the voters’ support for his party’s candidate Zia-ur-Rehman Barq.
The Congress leaders and political observers believe that Modi’s language in his election rallies have betrayed desperation rather than confidence. This desperation may be rooted in the dramatic changes in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh which have emboldened the Opposition to assert that the victory for the BJP is not certain. Interestingly, the Congress spokespersons have already started describing Modi as an “outgoing Prime Minister”.
