Bid To Turn UP Into A Communal Cauldron, Muslims Refuse The Bait

Syed Khalique Ahmed

NEW DELHI—A chain of events in the last few weeks in politically crucial Uttar Pradesh is interpreted as a calculated attempt to divert attention from the real issues.

If the political analysts are to be believed, it is being done to polarize the society along religious lines to cover up the failures of the Yogi Adityanath government on several fronts, paramount among them being the mishandling of the Covid crisis.

According to political observers, the exercise is being undertaken as the 2022 Assembly poll is less than eight months away. 

The mismanagement of the state government has brought a bad name to the Yogi government and caused anger among the people against the ruling clique in the state.

The videos showing dead bodies floating in the river Ganges and dogs eating the bodies on the riverbank in Prayagraj (formerly Allahabad) have spoiled the administration’s image and created a trust deficit in the state government and its administration. Lack of adequate arrangements at crematoriums for disposal of Covid-19 bodies has further added to people’s anger against the government. During the pandemic, the people felt that the government was absent from everywhere. Even the RSS and BJP workers were missing from the scene, leaving it to Muslim neighbors to transport Hindu Covid-19 bodies to the crematoriums and perform their last rites. Muslims carrying Hindu bodies to the crematoriums were witnessed in Lucknow’s state capital and other towns like Meerut and Prayagraj. It gave an impression of the government’s absence or lack of management of the crisis.

The Yogi Adityanath’s government claimed that the state administration had provided all the facilities to treat Covid-19 patients in the state. But it failed to convince the people as many Covid-19 patients were reported to have died due to lack of oxygen and medicines in hospitals. While the government officially claims over 22,000 deaths linked to Covid-19 in the state, it appears to be highly underreported more because of the deaths from smaller towns and the rural areas, where there are no facilities of Covid-19 testing, are not accounted for. 

The Yogi government threatened to book hospitals or anyone who complained of a shortage of oxygen or medical resources in the state. But the death of four BJP MLAs and three ministers – Minister for Technical Education Kamal Rani Varun, Minister of State for Revenue and Flood Control Vijay Kashyap, and a cabinet minister Chetan Chauhan – spoke volumes about the medical facilities for treatment of Covid-19 patients in the state. Sitapur MLA Rakesh Rathor said he feared sedition charges would be leveled against him if he spoke too much criticizing the government on the Covid-19 management issue.

Sandhya, the Covid-infected wife of BJP MLA Ramgopal Lodh from Firozabad, was not admitted to a private hospital in Agra as MLA himself was undergoing treatment in a hospital in Firozabad. Finally, the intervention of the Agra district magistrate got her a bed in a hospital. 

BJP’s Confidence Weakened After Poor Performance In Zilla Panchayat Polls, defeat in its strongholds of Varanasi, Ayodhya, and Mathura

While BJP leaders publicly may not be willing to admit their government’s failures in tackling the Covid-19 crisis for obvious reasons, the fact is that it has severely hit the popularity of the party among the people and caused a “negative perception” of the Yogi government. And its accurate barometer was the results of the Zilla Panchayat elections in the first week of May. BJP claims that candidates backed by it won only about 900 of 3,050 Zilla panchayat ward member seats, meaning that it lost elections in over 2000 seats. What is more worrying for BJP is that it lost Zilla Panchayat polls in its stronghold of Varanasi district, the Lok Sabha constituency of PM Narendra Modi. BJP also lost the Zilla panchayat polls in the Mathura and Ayodhya districts, where the temple’s construction has begun with the support of BJP and VHP. BJP losing Zilla panchayat polls in Varanasi indicates the declining popularity of PM himself in his constituency that elected him to Lok Sabha twice – in 2014 and 2019. It is difficult to say to what extent these developments would affect the party in the forthcoming assembly polls. But it has undoubtedly weakened the confidence of the party before the commencement of the assembly polls.

Revival of Jat-Muslim Political alliance threatens saffron party in Western UP

The BJP that had built a strong base in the Western UP by causing a division in Jats and Muslims’ political alliance, faces a challenging situation in the western part of the state as the ongoing farmers’ agitation against three farm laws has politically united the two communities again. The Jat-Muslim alliance that Chaudhary Charan Singh carefully cobbled together helped him and his son Chaudhary Ajit Singh play an essential role in state and national politics. The coming together of Jats and Muslims again on one political platform owing to farmers’ agitation has undoubtedly caused nervousness among BJP leadership. The BJP leadership feels panicked because the Jat-Muslim alliance threatens the political survival of the saffron party. The Western UP districts from Agra to Saharanpur account for 77 assembly seats out of 403 seats in the House. Muslims, who account for over 26 percent of voters in the Western UP districts, play a vital role in deciding the outcome of the polls if the elections are held without communal polarization. The Muslim population in Western UP districts – Muzaffarnagar, Saharanpur, Meerut, Bijnor, Moradabad, Amroha, Rampur, and Bareilly – has risen to 40.43 percent as per the 2011 census against 29.93 percent in 1951.

 The Muslim population in the rest of UP is about 19-20 percent only. Given the 12 to 14 percent of Jats in the Western belt, the two communities make a formidable political force that can defeat any political formation in the area. The Jat-Muslim alliance stitched together by Chaudhary Charan Singh, and some Muslim leaders kept the BJP away from gaining a political foothold in the area. But the growth of the Hindutva post-1992 Babri Masjid episode gradually helped BJP create a support base for itself and enter the region’s politics as a dominant force after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots. 

With the Yogi Adityanath government seemingly becoming unpopular due to poor handling of Covid-19 in Eastern and Central UP districts and emergence of a new political equation in Western UP by coming together of Jats and Muslims, central BJP leadership appeared worried about the forthcoming assembly elections. Brahmins in BJP have also expressed their disquiet with the Yogi government, adding to further worry in the party’s top echelons. Political analysts say that it was one of the reasons why PM Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah wanted to change the leadership in UP before the assembly elections. But Yogi, with the help of his connections in the RSS, managed to stay as the RSS is reported to have advised that changing leadership just before a few months before the elections is not politically wise. But there is also no other leader in BJP in UP who can match the popularity of Yogi even at this moment and replace him when the government is facing criticism not only from the opposition but also its MLAs and leaders. So, BJP’s and RSS’s compulsion is to keep Yogi in the driving seat, at least for the 2022 assembly elections. Consequently, Yogi emerged stronger not only in the state but at the national level, too, in the party as Modi-Shah’s faction in BJP failed to cut the wings of Yogi. With Yogi having his way in UP’s politics despite severe opposition from the Modi-Shah camp, the dissent against Yogi in UP BJP has also started melting away, with his chief adversary and deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya trying to mend fences with him.

Will UP turn into a communal cauldron and keep boiling till the end of the 2022 Assembly polls

As Yogi will now lead the party charge for the assembly elections, winning the polls is a challenge for him, mainly because the party had won 2017 assembly polls riding piggyback the popularity of Modi. Modi’s popularity has now been dented, as exhibited in West Bengal, where he failed to defeat Mamata Banerjee. Hence, the West Bengal election was projected as Modi vs. Mamata battle. Under these circumstances, Yogi will have to engineer something to ensure that BJP wins the 2022 assembly polls. No doubt, it is a massive task given the “negative perception” of the party and Yogi in the state due to the state government’s failure on all fronts, more particularly about Covid-19. A gigantic scandal in the purchase of land for Ram Mandir, whose foundation was laid in the presence of Yogi and PM Modi after the Supreme Court transferred the Babri Masjid site for the temple, has further dented the image of BJP, which was on the forefront of the temple movement.

So, Yogi will be facing the next assembly elections in an atmosphere where it has nothing to present before the electorates as achievements of his government or that of the Central government. The Centre has miserably failed to perform its role to tackle the Covid-19 crisis. India is the second most corona-affected country in the world. India has, till June 26, recorded 3.02 crore Covid-19 infections and 3.94 lakh Covid-related deaths. The increase of unemployment during the Modi regime due to his policies and pandemic has increased the poverty. At the same time, prices of several commodities – wheat, rice, pulses, edible oil, LPG, petrol, and diesel have witnessed a sharp rise since 2014. Prices of several items like edible oil have gone up by more than 100 percent and about 50 percent in the case of petrol and diesel. The increase in prices is taking place when the income of a large segment of the population has come down due to a slowdown of economic activity.

Political analysts say that the saffron party with a history of using the communal tension as a political ladder to rise in politics will not shy away from repeating the same strategy in UP elections to mobilize voters and keep its constituents together. The question is what to do in such a scenario for a party facing incumbency? Will UP turn into a communal cauldron and also keep boiling till the end of the 2022 assembly elections? 

Communally-provocative incidents in UP in May-June

Opposition party leaders and political analysts see the communally provocative incidents in different parts of the state to polarize the voters on communal lines to divert attention from real issues and win their support for BJP in the polls. Communally provocative incidents, according to analysts, are aimed at covering up the failures of the government that has angered the people.

A 100-year-old mosque at Ram Snehi Ghat in Barabanki district was razed by the district administration a few weeks ago. Samajwadi Party leader and former UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav said it was undoubtedly done to whip up communal passions ahead of the 2022 assembly elections.

The effort of the Gorakhpur district administration to remove over a dozen Muslim families from around the Gorakhnath Temple without following proper legal procedures was also interpreted as another bid to stoke communal tension and mobilize people in favor of the BJP. Surprisingly, Yogi himself happens to be the chief priest of the Gorakhnath temple. However, good sense prevailed over the administration, and it has not gone ahead with its plans after comprehensive coverage of the issue in local, national, and international media. It is not known if the CM himself intervened in Gorakhpur issue and restrained the administration from removing Muslim families illegally. Still, the administration certainly deserves appreciation for not uprooting the Muslim families from their houses where they have lived for over 100 years and have legal ownership of the land. 

Communally provocative developments took place at several places in Western UP, too. In the Muslim-majority Nurpur village in the Aligarh district, some elements tried to engineer communal riots by playing music in front of the village mosque when a Hindu marriage procession passed from near the mosque. Surprisingly, many Hindu residents put up boards of “House on Sale” outside their houses, interpreted by political activists as a bid to whip up communal tension in the entire Western UP for political gains by a particular party.

Ghaziabad’s Dasna Devi temple priest Yati Narsanghanand used highly offensive language against Prophet Mohammed at a press conference at Delhi’s Press Club of India in March this year. During a police investigation, he openly admitted to having made offensive remarks. Political analysts say that objective appeared to provoke Muslims to react and then engineer communal violence as has often been done before elections in the past for political gains. 

The arrest of two Muslims – Mohammed Umar Gautam and Qazi Jehangir Alam Qasmi – on the allegations of converting Hindus to Islam also has all the potential to create communal tension. The duo was only providing legal assistance to those embracing Islam. Yet, they have been booked under National Security Act, and the UP chief minister has asked authorities to seize their properties. Jamaat-e-Islami Hind’s vice president, Professor Mohammad Salim Engineer, was entirely appropriate when he said it was an attempt “to divert attention from the real public issues to create an emotional atmosphere because of the UP assembly elections.”

Commenting on their arrest, Prof Salim said, “How they were arrested and are being implicated in serious charges and the way a section of the media is overreacting, it clearly shows that attempts are being made to exploit public sentiments by creating a charged atmosphere of fear, intimidation, and hatred for political mileage. Such attempts to divert attention from the real public issues to create a sentimental atmosphere because of the UP Assembly elections to be held eight months later are lamentable.”

 He further said, “In a democratic country, who can force someone to change his religion? Islam does not allow forcible conversion at all. Our Constitution gives every citizen the right to choose, practice and propagate the religion of his choice. No one can deprive him of this right. Making unfounded allegations of terrorism and threats to invoke stringent laws like NSA and seizure of property are tantamount to challenging the democracy and the Indian Constitution.”

Former Delhi Minorities’ Commission chairman Dr. Zafarul Islam Khan also echoed similar views. He said that the arrest was being used to communalize the atmosphere in UP for political purposes by the ruling party when the assembly elections in UP were approaching. All India Muslim Majlis Mushawarat (AIMMM) President Navaid Hamid also criticized the arrest saying, “UP CM’s order to invoke NSA against the two preachers is the misuse of law”.

Several other incidents having the capacity to cause communal trouble have also taken place in UP. 

Silver Lining As Muslims Refuse To Fall A Bait To Divisive Forces

In this otherwise “negative” situation, there is hope. There is a silver lining as the Muslims have refused to fall bait to political strategists adept in communalizing the situation and not reacting violently. They have shown great patience and refused to take the law into their own hands, indicating their political maturity.

The Muslims have also not issued any provocative statements about any of these actions. All this has poured cold water on the plans of those who might be planning to engineer communal riots across the state when the elections are just a few months away. Instead of taking the law into their own hands, Muslims have taken to legal recourse to fight injustice against them, from Gorakhpur to demolition of the mosque in Barabanki to the arrest of Mohammed Umar Gautam and Qazi Jehangir Qasmi. According to political analysts, the political maturity displayed by Muslims that has prevented the creation of communal tension might help check the polarisation of voters on religious lines and defeat the objective of divisive forces.