By Syed Khalique Ahmed
NEW DELHI—Though BJP has emerged as the single largest party having won 48 seats and leading in 192 seats, elections trends indicate that it cannot form the government on its own and will have to depend on other NDA partners.
The BJP will have to depend on support from NDA constituents – Chandrababu Naidu of Telugu Desam Party and Nitish Kumar of Janata Dala United.
But the question is: Will the two NDA constituents support BJP to form the government at the Centre? Political analysts have doubts about it.
Sources from Patna say that Nitish Kumar refused to attend the phone calls of PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah and also turned back Bihar deputy chief minister Samrat Chaudhary when the latter went to Kumar’s bungalow to convey the PM’s message. However, it could not be verified independently by India Tomorrow.
But even if the BJP is able to form a government, it will be a very weak government and may have to compromise with its agenda, particularly with regard to minorities, especially Muslims who were the targets of BJP’s government at the Centre and in states since Modi became the PM for the first time in May 2014.
The election trends have also indicated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has lost his charisma and ceased to be a vote puller and has reached his ‘expiry date’ in electoral arena.
The biggest shock BJP has received is from Uttar Pradesh that had given 62 seats to BJP and two other seats to its allies in 2019 general elections but it is leading in 36 seats only in UP in 2024. Its candidate is also trailing in Ayodhya where a Ram temple has been built over the ruins of the Babri Masjid that was illegally demolished in December 1992. And BJP and PM Modi claim the credit for building the Ram Temple though the temple was built on the orders of the Supreme Court of India that came in November 2019.
Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state having 80 Lok Sabha states and performance of parties in this state decides who will form the government at the Centre.
The trends indicate that UP voters are highly dissatisfied with Modi government’s performance at the Centre and his party’s government in UP also. Ram Temple card, controversies over Gyanvapi mosque in Varanasi and Shahi Idgah mosque in Mathura generated by radical groups allied to BJP, failed to mobilise voters in favour of BJP in this politically most important North Indian state.
This suggests that utility of religious card by BJP in electoral battle, propagating hatred against minorities particularly Muslims to keep its flock together and using bulldozer politics is now over. PM Modi and Congress’ face Rahul Gandhi are contesting from UP: Modi from Varanasi seat and Rahul from family pocketborough Raebareli. Both are reported to be leading in their seats. Rahul, who is also contesting from Wayanad in Kerala, is also leading in that seat. However, he will have to resign from one of the two seats.
There is strong message for the BJP from election trends in UP and elsewhere in the country. The message is that if BJP wants to continue in power, it needs to focus on real issues of employment, development and curbing inflation that has touched its zenith in the last 10 years and made the life of people highly miserable.
There are some other reasons based on caste factor responsible for BJP’s drubbing at the hustings in UP. Political analysts say that Thakur voters, who are said to be pro-BJP, abstained from casting their votes because of the rumour that BJP would remove Yogi Adityanath, a Thakur himself, from UP chief ministership after the Lok Sabha polls, and Dalit voters shifting to INDIA alliance because of the talks about BJP to abolish reservation by amending the Constitution post 2024 Lok Sabha polls. BSP, a pro-Dalit party has drawn total blank in UP because Dalit voters feel that BSP supremo Mayawati has compromised with BJP for personal benefits.
Another surprise thrown by 2024 elections is BJP making inroads in Southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana where BJP’s alliance partners are leading over majority of Lok Sabha seats and NDA partners leading over two seats in Kerala.
In Karnataka, Where Congress returned to power a few months ago, NDA led by BJP is leading in 21 seats against 10 of the Congress.
In West Bengal, BJP has shown very impressive performance as it was leading in 12 seats till the filing of this news item. This indicates that saffron party has made inroads into the West Bengal by using emotional appeal against Mamata Banerjee.
In Bihar also, NDA is leading over opposition INDIA alliance.
In Rajasthan, the performance of opposition Congress is very impressive as it is leading over 11 seats against 13 of the Congress.
Muslim candidates winning and leading:
Iqra Hasan wins from Kairana in UP.
Hina Shahab leading from Bihar.
Imran Masood(Congress) leading in Saharanpur seat.
Afzal Ansari leading from Ghazipur(UP).
Tarique Anwar (NCP) leading from Bihar
Asaduddin Owaisi (AIMIM) leading from Hyderabad.
