By Our Correspondent
NEW DELHI – Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s electoral setbacks in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the Bharatiya Janata Party’s compulsion to rely on the coalition partners to form the government at the Centre for the third consecutive term will make an impact on India’s regional policies, with the neighbouring countries adopting a “cautious approach”, a prominent public institute of the United States of America has said.
With Modi, his colleagues in the BJP and the newly elected Members of Parliament belonging to Congress and other Opposition parties having taken oath in the 18th Lok Sabha after the just-concluded general elections, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has released a report on how India’s neighbours have reacted to the latest developments and are formulating their strategies to have working relationship with the new government.
While Bangladesh continues to seek a balancing act with India and China, Pakistan is sceptical about the prospects for improved relations with India. Maldives appears to have achieved a reset with India and Sri Lanka has an uncertain road ahead, according to the USIP’s report. The USIP, founded in 1984, is a national independent institute founded by the U.S. Congress and is dedicated to bringing about a world without violent conflict, essential for the U.S. and global security.
While mentioning the swearing-in of Modi on June 9 for his third consecutive term as India’s Prime Minister as an important event, the USIP pointed out that that the public polls had predicted a sweeping majority for Modi, and it came as some surprise that his BJP lost ground with voters and had to rely on coalition partners to form a ruling government. “Although India’s elections were fought mainly on domestic policy issues, there were important exceptions and Modi’s electoral setback could have implications for India’s regional and global policies,” the report stated.
Ambassador Humayun Kabir, president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute in Dhaka, and USIP’s Geoffrey Macdonald, Nilanthi Samaranayake and Asfandyar Mir have authored the report, while considering how India’s election outcomes were perceived in neighbouring Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
Bangladesh’s government and citizens always watch their closest neighbour’s elections intently. Despite the BJP’s controversial rhetoric and actions toward Muslims in India and the region, over the last 10 years Bangladesh’s Awami League government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has cultivated a productive working relationship with Modi’s BJP government.
In Modi’s third term, regional geopolitical competition between India and China is likely to raise the stakes of bilateral relations. Last week, Hasina was the first foreign leader to visit Delhi since Modi’s inauguration, indicating the mutual importance of the relationship. The two sides boosted defence ties and cemented a series of agreements to expand cooperation in maritime security, ocean economy, telecommunications and other issues.
The USIP report affirmed that Bangladesh will try to maintain its policy of strategic balancing by pursuing independent bilateral ties with India, China and the U.S. Despite geopolitical tensions and long-standing policy disagreements, the political understanding between India and Bangladesh will continue and both the governments will see the other as a key partner and will be reluctant to rock the status quo. With India, Bangladesh will continue to reiterate the need for a cross-border water sharing agreement, removing non-tariff barriers to exports from Bangladesh, and halting border killings.
Just back from Delhi, Hasina is set to visit Beijing in two weeks to continue Bangladesh’s balancing act.
Given Bangladesh’s fraught domestic politics, however, the views of ordinary Bangladeshis could complicate relations with India, the report said. Many Bangladeshis resent India’s perceived political, economic and cultural dominance in their country, which has led to large anti-Modi protests in the past and a burgeoning “India Out” movement.
Bangladeshi critics of India were relieved by the election outcome because they hope it will moderate Modi’s behaviour in India and the region. In Dhaka, the ruling Awami League will need to balance its desire for strong relations with India with growing domestic discontent toward its domineering neighbour, according to the report.
Modi’s third term was widely expected in Maldives and Sri Lanka, said the USIP report. Despite multiple controversies which have characterised Maldives-India relations since the start of Mohamed Muizzu’s new administration in November 2023, the Maldivian President had a successful first official visit to India to attend Modi’s swearing-in ceremony.
The previous month, India completed the process of withdrawing military forces in Maldives. The withdrawal was the focal point of Muizzu’s “India Out” campaign when running for President and priority of his first months in office. Although Maldives agreed to replace Indian military aircraft operators with civilian personnel, the two countries continue to cooperate on a range of issues such as infrastructure development and debt repayment, the report pointed out.
In a signal that Maldivian-Indian relations have achieved a healthy reset, Muizzu was seated next to Modi at the banquet of visiting leaders after Modi’s ceremony. Observers also noted a positive tone in Muizzu’s interactions with other Indian officials.
Whereas Muizzu is early into a five-year term and his party holds a Parliamentary majority after elections in April, Sri Lankan president Ranil Wickremesinghe attended Modi’s ceremony ahead of a Presidential election expected to take place in September or October this year, with uncertainty about the outcome. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar visited Sri Lanka afterward in his first bilateral trip of the new term and discussed several areas of cooperation between the two countries, such as energy and maritime security.
The report pointed out that India and Sri Lanka will need to resolve the issue of Chinese research vessels visiting Sri Lankan ports. Colombo imposed a year-long moratorium on all research vessel visits in January due to Indian and U.S. concerns. Amid confusion in the moratorium’s implementation, the next Sri Lankan administration will undoubtedly face pressure to address the issue. It represents a serious strategic challenge for a smaller state and holds wider implications for the access and basing of major power navies in the Indian Ocean.
Dealing with the difficult subject of India-Pakistan relations, the USIP report said since the Pakistani leaders anticipated Modi and his BJP to win big in the elections, they were probably surprised by the final outcome that saw a reduced BJP vote share and coalition rule in New Delhi. However, they do not expect much to change as a result and believe that Modi will continue India’s policy of disengagement with Pakistan and might even strike a more belligerent posture for domestic political gain.
Prior to the elections, Pakistani leaders and elites held some hope that relations with India might improve under a new government, but that sentiment diminished over the course of India’s long campaign season. The Pakistani side, in particular, noted the BJP leadership’s hawkish tone on Pakistan. Pakistani elites focused on the Indian Defence Minister’s near-admission of eliminatintg anti-India militants in Pakistan as well as claims by Home Minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath about taking Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan regions from Pakistan, stated the report.
Perhaps as a result, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif issued only a weak congratulatory statement to Modi the day after his inauguration, while leaders from many of India’s other neighbours congratulated him earlier and even attended Modi’s inaugural festivities. Sharif seems to have calibrated this statement to maintain diplomatic niceties without excessive warmth, according to the report.
The elder brother of the PM Shehbaz Sharif and former three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif issued a warmer statement congratulating Modi. Continuing his three-decade-long statesmanlike position on India-Pakistan conciliation, he recognised Modi’s popular mandate. Nawaz Sharif’s statement reflects the most optimistic Pakistani perspective on relations with India, that bold conciliation might still offer a path to thaw, normalcy and peaceful coexistence.
This is clearly a minority view, one traditionally opposed by Pakistan’s powerful Army, the USIP report pointed out. Today many in his own party also question Nawaz Sharif’s conciliatory impulses and view his position as unrealistic in the face of Indian stridency, the report said, adding that more significantly, the Pakistani military leadership’s restraint of recent years appears to wear increasingly thin, indicated by statements both before and after the elections. Looking ahead, tense India-Pakistan bilateral ties with limited diplomacy and a sterner Pakistani posture towards India appear likely, said the report.
The USIP works with local partners to prevent, mitigate, and resolve violent conflicts in the conflict zones around the world. The Institute pursues its mission by linking research, policy, training, analysis and direct action to support those who are working to build a more peaceful and inclusive world. The USIP continues to focus on conflict areas which are of the greatest concern to U.S. national security interests and values.
