By Anwarulhaq Baig
NEW DELHI: Veteran journalist and strategic expert Qamar Agha has warned of a broader conflict in the Middle East following Israeli attacks on Iranian targets, including the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, and Iran’s vows of retaliation.
Speaking at a programme titled Ongoing Genocide in Gaza and the Question of Palestine at the Jamaat-e-Islami Hind (JIH) headquarters here on Saturday, he warned of further destabilization of the region if the international intervention fails.
Stating that Israel considered its right to strike its enemies irrespective of their location, he said that Israel had in the past carried out operations in many countries, including Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and the UAE, where high-ranking Hamas leaders were assassinated.
Outlining American military preparations in the region, including the movement of naval ships and advanced fighter planes to Middle Eastern bases, the veteran journalist suggested that Israel and the US might be planning a massive air campaign against Iran, similar to that in Iraq, aiming to destroy Iran’s infrastructure.
He said that Israel failed to eliminate Palestinian resistance groups despite its overwhelming military superiority, owing to the independent nature of organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, emphasizing their ability to regenerate even after significant setbacks.
Agha drew parallels to other historical conflicts where superior military forces ultimately failed to suppress resistance movements, citing examples like the British in India, Americans in Vietnam and Afghanistan, and ongoing challenges in North Korea and Venezuela.
Agha also noted that the rising influence of Iran in the region and its support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah has intensified the geopolitical struggle. Iran’s refusal to recognize Israel and its support for resistance movements have made it a significant player in the regional dynamics.
Agha highlighted the ongoing strong support for Israel from the U.S. government and the influential Jewish lobby in America. He explained that Israel has successfully aligned its national interests with those of the United States, framing its adversaries—such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran—as enemies of America as well.
Agha explored the reasons behind America’s unwavering support for Israel, Agha said that it stems from the need to protect American interests in the region, particularly oil and crucial shipping lanes. He also pointed to the significant presence of Jewish individuals in high-level American bureaucratic positions and the close alignment of Israeli and American national security interests.
Roots of the October Hamas attack on Israel
The veteran journalist said that daily oppression by Israeli forces faced by Palestinians and the possibility of Saudi Arabia signing the Abraham Accord, after the UAE and Bahrain, forced them to attack Israel on October 7. They feared after Saudi Arabia recognized Israel, Pakistan, Malaysia and other Muslim countries would follow suit and Palestine’s agenda would be forgotten.
The Hamas Attack
Agha detailed how Hamas, operating through underground tunnels, launched a surprise attack on Israel, taking about 250 hostages. While Israel claimed 1,200 casualties, recent reports suggest the number might be closer to 800, with some fatalities caused even by Israeli security forces.
Agha explained that Hamas, which operates through a network of underground tunnels, had been preparing for such a conflict for years. Despite intense fighting over the past ten months, Hamas has managed to maintain its strength and continue its resistance against Israeli forces. Agha described how Hamas’s strategic use of tunnels and underground operations has allowed it to sustain its resistance despite the overwhelming military power of Israel.
Positive outcomes of the attack for the Palestinian cause
According to him, the attack halted the trend of Arab nations normalizing relations with Israel while it reignited global awareness about the Palestinian issue, which had been sidelined as Israel had sharply expanded its influence in the region and the attack exposed Israel’s vulnerabilities and challenged its plans for a “Greater Israel.”
“Israel felt that it was an opportune time to establish a Greater Israel. This involved removing Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank and relocating them to Jordan and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Egypt was facing a significant debt from the World Bank and other international financial institutions, and Israel proposed to help with debt forgiveness in exchange for relocating Palestinians to a new city in Sinai, with funding from Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries,” he added.
Agha asserts that Israel views the West Bank as a “Biblical land,” claiming it was historically significant to them, with past religious figures and their kingdom having been based there.
Creation of a Palestinian state inevitable, Greater Israel no longer feasible
However, Qamar Agha highlighted the significant implications of Hamas’s recent actions. According to Agha, Hamas has established that the creation of a Palestinian state is now inevitable and that the vision of a “Greater Israel” is no longer feasible. Despite potential timeframes of 10 to 15 years, he asserts that this shift has become a major threat to both Israel and its ally, the United States.
Agha pointed out that this development has triggered notable changes in American foreign policy and has led to increased assertiveness in the Arab world. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has begun advocating for a more independent foreign policy, seeking to reduce its dependence on the U.S. and forge stronger ties with Russia and China. Agha noted that this realignment has angered the U.S., especially as Saudi Arabia has reestablished relations with Iran.
Noting a significant shift in public opinion, especially in Europe and the United States, he cited massive demonstrations, including a one-million-strong march in England and weekly protests across nearly all American cities with one to 10 lakh gathering. This shift is particularly pronounced among youth and university students.
The expert also suggested the US has had to adjust its policies slightly in response to this shifting sentiment, despite the establishment in the US, closely linked with Israel.
Agha suggested that the current conflict has established the inevitability of a Palestinian state, contrary to Israel’s plans for a “Greater Israel.” He predicted that the awakening in the Arab world and the shifting global public opinion would have long-term effects on the region’s geopolitics.
Historical Context of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Qamar Agha provided a detailed historical overview of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, tracing its origins to before World War I. According to Agha, the roots of the conflict can be traced back to the waning days of the Ottoman Empire. As the empire declined, British and French interests sought to leverage the situation, particularly through Zionist organizations established by wealthy Jewish bankers and businessmen in Europe.
Agha explained that these Zionist leaders successfully persuaded the British and French governments to support the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine. In exchange, they promised substantial financial contributions to the war efforts of the Allies during World War I. The strategic location of Palestine, situated between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, as well as its proximity to Africa and Asia, made it a highly coveted region.
Following the war, in 1917, British Foreign Secretary Lord Balfour issued the Balfour Declaration, recognizing Palestine as a Jewish homeland. This declaration marked the beginning of significant Jewish immigration to Palestine, which intensified during and after World War II. By 1948, large-scale violence ensued as Jewish forces carried out attacks that displaced numerous native Palestinians and Arabs.
The United Nations General Assembly’s resolution in 1948 to establish the State of Israel was non-binding, a fact often overlooked by the media, which, according to Agha, is largely controlled by Israeli interests. The subsequent 1967 war saw Israel’s sudden attack and conquest of Palestinian territories, further exacerbating the conflict.
He criticized Arab nations for their limited bargaining power despite their wealth in oil and resources, attributing this to their lack of strong military capabilities and reliance on U.S. security. Agha highlighted that countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, which lack significant military forces, have essentially outsourced their security needs to the U.S. under the “oil for security” agreement.
The rise of Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, further increased the tensions for the US and Israel. Agha pointed out that the Saudi regime, which views the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology unfavourably, has distanced itself from Hamas.
As the situation escalates in the Middle East due to prolonged suffering of Gazans and the unresolved Palestine issue, Agha’s expert analysis sheds light on this complex and enduring conflict, offering crucial insights into both the immediate crisis and its broader regional and global impacts.
