By Syed Khalique Ahmed
NEW DELHI: The Congress party’s defeat in the Haryana assembly elections has stunned not only the Congress leaders but all political analysts from journalists covering Haryana for decades to non-Congress opposition leaders.
They expected Congress to win the Haryana polls with an overwhelming majority and their calculations were based on the turnout of the people in Congress party’s political rallies and meetings, and comparatively thin attendance in BJP’s election rallies, including those addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
If this was the barometer of political pundits, their guess about who would perform better at the hustings proved utterly wrong, suggesting that crowds at political gatherings cannot be the correct measure for the victory or defeat of any political party. Or one can say that Congress failed to convert the crowds coming to its rallies into votes.
If there was political mismanagement on the part of those assigned with the job of Congress party organization in the state, there are some other significant changes that have undergone in the society in the last decade that Congress and other opposition leaders have failed to comprehend. And if they understood the developments about Hindutva that had taken place below the surface, they simply ignored it and did not do anything to counter it and change it in their party’s favour.
The narrative built by Congress is that it lost the elections due to manipulations in the Electronic Voting Machines (ENMs) by Elections Commission officials allegedly sympathetic to the BJP. But if this was the case, how could Congress have won the polls in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka or even opposition INDIA improved its performance significantly in the Lok sabha-2024 elections and BJP failed to reach the mark to form the government at the Centre on its own. There does not appear to be any concrete logic in the allegations of Congress as far as EVMs are concerned.
Congress needs to look inward to find out the reasons for its defeat despite its leaders, undoubtedly, having worked hard. The reasons for its defeat seem to be the arrogancy of its state leadership in charge of the party organization and involvement in the distribution of tickets.
While the BJP was plotting an election strategy to cut into the vote base of the Congress by encouraging the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jananayak Janata Party (JJP) to make a dent into the Jat voters of the Congress and inspiring BSP and Azad Samaj Party to field candidates to divide the Congress party’s Dalit vote base, the Congress was facing infighting within. BJP is also reported to have funded to field independents to cut the vote of the Congress in constituencies where the Congress was perceived to be in a strong position. The BJP is also said to have encouraged and funded the rebel Congress leaders who were dissatisfied with the party.
As Haryana society is primarily a caste-based society, the BJP focussed on cobbling together other backward castes (OBCs) by appointing an OBC leader Naib Singh Saini as chief minister a few months before the elections and shunting out Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi by caste. BJP believed that Punjabi voters would still cling to BJP even if Khattar was removed but OBC voters would come to BJP only if some OBC leader is made the chief minister. This polarised the electorates because Congress had focussed too much on Jat voters because of the popularity of Congress leader Bhupender Singh Hooda among the Jat community. Hooda allocated the majority of tickets to Jat community leaders. The Congress also ignored senior party leader Shailja Kumari, a Dalit, and humiliated her by not considering the case of candidates from the Dalit community whom she wanted to be nominated to contest elections. This sent the message to the lowest level among the Dalit voters whose political awareness has improved much owing to the growth of education among them. Shailja also did not go for canvassing during the elections though she shared a stage with Rahul Gandhi and Hooda on the insistence of senior Congress leadership. So, overall the contest became bipolar with Jats and Muslims siding with the Congress and OBCs, Punjabis and the majority of Dalits backing the BJP.
Though the Congress managed to increase its vote share from 28 percent in previous assembly elections to 39 percent now, it failed to win enough seats to form the government. Against it, BJP’s vote increased by just 3 percent (39.09 %) but it gave more seats t the BJP than needed to acquire power in the state.
According to details available now, Congress lost 10 seats due to party rebels contesting against the official party candidates, three seats due to INLD, one seat due to BSP, and five seats due to votes polled by AAP. In all these constituencies, Congress would have easily won if these parties had been managed by the party by entering into an electoral alliance or forming some other equation with them which the Congress did not do. In one seat where AAP polled 2500 votes, Congress lost by just 32 votes.
All this indicates a lack of micro-management by the Congress. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Congress allied with AAP in Haryana and it won five Lok Sabha seats. Had it done the same arrangement with AAP in assembly elections, it would have increased its tally and would have also wrested power from BJP.
But the Congress perhaps was under the impression that the BJP is facing anti-incumbency in Haryana and that was why it removed Manohar Lal Khattar from chief ministership. But there is no such thing as anti-incumbency against BJP in any of the states, including Haryana. In states where the BJP has lost, its vote share has not gone down. It has maintained its vote base because the undercurrent of Hindutva which is not visible on the surface has become permanently rooted and is solidly with the BJP and its support is always with the BJP even if BJP government performance is not good.
This is because communal politics has established its deep roots in Indian society in the last two and a half decades. And the result of the last 10 years of BJP leaders’ campaign has brought serious changes in the ideological inclination of the majority community in India. Unfortunately, the Hindu majority has come to permanently perceive Muslims as a threat to the country. The BJP’s philosophy and agenda to “suppress Muslims” has taken deep roots in Hindu society. Previously, such perceptions were formed after communal riots. But this mindset seems to have become a part of the permanent undercurrent of perception in Hindu society. With such an attitude getting permanency in the mind of a significant section of the Hindu population, the BJP’s vote bank has become permanent and it cannot be dented simply by anti-incumbency as political analysts many times believe. If we study the election results, we find that the BJP’s vote share is gradually increasing in every election though by small margins. But once this increase takes place, it cannot be reversed. This is the biggest achievement of the BJP and a challenge for Congress and opposition parties. This trend has been evident not only in Haryana for the last three consecutive elections but all is as also in Gujarat since 1995 and in Madhya Pradesh and other states.
If we believe political observers, the war in Gaza and Lebanon also affected the elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. As Muslims support Palestinians and Hezbollah for various reasons, political observers say that it polarized the Hindus against the Congress whom the Muslims generally support in elections. So, there are various reasons for the BJP getting the upper hand against the Congress in the Haryana elections which are very difficult to counter for the Congress or any other non-BJP party.
Could Congress and other opposition parties challenge the BJP ideologically and wrest the power from it? It is a Herculean task given the ideological revolution taking place in the Hindu community owing to Hindutva being used in politics by BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Bajrang Dal, Durga Vahini and other organizations helping the task of BJP.
