Shafeeq Rahman,
The massive victory for BJP in Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections by winning two-third seats, specifically its victory in Muslim-concentrated constituencies, has surprised many political pundits. BJP has even won in most of the constituencies which were earlier known as the loyal seats of SP, BSP and INC. Such win has given an impression that Muslims at large have voted to BJP this time in the state.
To check the authenticity of the claim, a classification has been worked out according to the estimated Muslim population size in an Assembly Constituency and the voting pattern therein.
Muslims constitute 18% of the total state population. The population of the community is above 50% in 7 Assembly seats, above 40% in 25 seats and above 20% in 152 constituencies.
7 seats with above 50% Muslim population: SP won all the seven seats with 43% vote share. While BJP vote share was 28% only.
25 seats with above 40% Muslim population: SP+INC alliance won 14 seats with 37.4% vote share. BJP has won rest 11 seats with 35% vote share. Out of these 11 seats, BJP won on nine seats due to split of votes where candidates of SP+INC alliance and BSP were Muslim. Their combined votes were higher than the winning BJP candidate.
Parties Performance in 2017 Assembly Election of Uttar Pradesh by the Estimated Muslim Population Size in Assembly Constituencies
Party
Particular
Overall State (403 Seats)
Muslim above 20% (152 Seats)
Muslim above 40% (25 Seats)
Muslim above 50% (7 Seats)
BJP
Seats Contested
384
150
25
7
Seat Won
312
119
11
0
%age of seats Won
77
78
44
0
Vote share %
40
40
35
28
SP
Seats Contested
311
116
23
7
Seat Won
47
22
12
7
%age of seats Won
12
14
48
100
Vote share %
22
23
34
43
BSP
Seats Contested
403
152
25
7
Seat Won
19
5
0
0
%age of seats Won
5
3
0
0
Vote share %
22
21
19
20
INC
Seats Contested
114
48
2
0
Seat Won
7
3
2
0
%age of seats Won
2
2
8
0
Vote share %
6
8
3
0
Others
Seats Contested
3641
1328
225
51
Seat Won
18
3
0
0
%age of seats Won
4
2
0
0
Vote share %
10
8
8
10
152 seats with above 20%b Muslim population: Out of 152 constituencies, BJP has won 119 while the SP+INC alliance and BSP have won 25 and 5 seats respectively. Muslim parties like Peace Party, AIMIM and Muslim League were not able to win a single seat. Out of the total 24 Muslim winners in this state assembly polls, 21 have won from these constituencies while only 3 Muslims have won from the constituencies where Muslim population is below 20%.
However, there was a kind of polarization among non-Muslim communities in favour of BJP where Muslims have the sizable population. BJP has around the double share of seats in comparison to its overall vote share in Muslim concentrated 152 seats. BJP vote share was 40% but it won 119 seats, almost 80% of total 152 seats. While BSP was adversely affected with such polarization – it won only 3% seats (5 out of 152 ACs) though it secured 21% vote share. Due to such polarization, BJP gained at the cost of split in votes of other political parties.
—
Shafeeq Rahman is a Delhi based researcher. He can be contacted at [email protected].
