By IndiaTomorrow.net,
New Delhi, 23 Dec 2014: Despite the so-called Modi wave sweeping the country one thing that has emerged out of election results in Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir, and earlier in Maharashtra also, is that regional parties would continue to remain a force to reckon with in different regions of the country.
Despite Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference losing out in Kashmir Valley it has notched 15 seats in the valley which is an apparent indication that the party remains a formidable force in the state. Another regional outfit PDP has won polls primarily in the valley with 28 seats and most likely to form the next government in Srinagar with support of other parties. The BJP which has won 25 seats – mostly from the state’s Jammu region – has emerged as the second largest party in the state. There may be some elements of ‘Modi wave’ in surge of BJP’s numbers in the state.
In Jharkhand state, if the results of Lok Sabha had reflected in this assembly election the BJP should have swept the mineral rich state. The party had won 12 seats out of 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state in May this year. But the assembly elections are different ball game altogether where local issues come to play. There might have been a Modi wave in the Lok Sabha polls but in the assembly elections, despite the BJP winning a majority with the help of AJSU there was no sweep for the party in the polls.
Party position in Jharkhand Assembly polls 2014
Party
Won
Leading
Total
Bahujan Samaj Party
1
0
1
Bharatiya Janata Party
37
0
37
Indian National Congress
5
1
6
AJSU Party
5
0
5
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha
18
1
19
Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik)
8
0
8
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation)
1
0
1
Jai Bharat Samanta Party
1
0
1
Jharkhand Party
1
0
1
Marxist Co-Ordination
1
0
1
Navjawan Sangharsh Morcha
1
0
1
Total
79
2
81
Source: Election Commission of India
The BJP has won 37 seats in the Jharkhand region and without the help of AJSU which has won five seats it cannot form the government. So, the Jharkhand story consists of three lessons for the BJP as the Congress-RJD and others have been virtually decimated from the electoral contest.
The three lessons are AJSU, JMM and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha. As said earlier the AJSU would extract a price for supporting the BJP. Sudesh Mahto may once again be the deputy chief minister. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has notched 18 seats mainly from the Santhal Pargana region of the state form where it had won two Lok Sabha seats also. The good showing by JMM indicates that the party continues to hold ground in the state and mainly among the tribal population. On the other hand Babulal Marandi led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha has won seven seats, which continued to indicate the positive image the man holds among the people of Jharkhand. Marandi was the first BJP chief minister of Jharkhand but due to factional fighting he bowed out of the chief minister-ship as well as from the party. In the last one and half decade Babulal Marandi, Hemant Soren and Arjun Munda have emerged as top leaders of the state. If the BJP had groomed popular regional leaders like Marandi its position would have been much stronger in the state. The image of Marandi is better than that of Munda in the state. If the secular alliance the JMM-JVM-Congress-RJD had fought the polls together they would have made the BJP victory look difficult also.
Thus one aspect that could be argued is that the regional parties would continue to hold ground in the states far longer than the BJP may believe – as happened in Maharashtra where Shiv Sena showed its strength despite massive campaign by PM Modi and now in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand.
