By Pervez Bari
BHOPAL— The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government headed by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan may be in for a shock if the latest ABP-CVoter survey for the Madhya Pradesh elections 2023 to be held in November this year is any indication. With a neck-and-neck race to power in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly, a hung Vidhan Sabha wouldn’t be a surprise.
This has been revealed in the first opinion poll conducted by the ABP-CVoter survey. The survey has predicted a close contest between the two largest parties in the state – BJP and the Congress.
According to the survey, the incumbent BJP is likely to bag 106-118 seats while 108-120 assembly constituencies may vote in favour of Congress. The BSP, if it opens its account in Madhya Pradesh this year, could bag anything between 1 and 4 seats. The survey also revealed a close contest between BJP and Congress in Madhya Pradesh in terms of vote share, with both parties expected to get 44 per cent of the total votes cast.
In the 2018 Madhya Pradesh election, the BJP won 109 seats, falling short of the magic figure 116 by seven seats. The Congress, on the other hand, emerged as the single-largest party with 114, falling short of the majority by two seats.
Congress, despite failing to reach the majority mark, returned to power in the state after 15 years, with Kamal Nath taking the helm. The Congress managed to get the support of one SP MLA, 2 BSP MLAs, and 4 Independent MLAs — essentially all the non-BJP seats.
However, after just over a year, Kamal Nath was hit by a coup led by Jyotiraditya Scindia, who defected to the BJP along with 22 MLAs in his support. This rebellion by Scindia toppled the Kamal Nath government and Shivraj Singh Chouhan came back as Chief Minister for the fourth time.
While the Congress has vowed to return to power in Madhya Pradesh this year, it will be interesting to see the Opposition relationship dynamics as the Aam Aadmi Party and the Samajwadi Party, too, will contest against the Congress and BJP. However, all three Opposition parties are trying to be on the united Opposition platform for 2023 Lok Sabha elections being floated by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
