By Our Correspondent
NEW DELHI – Amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict, Egypt has briefly shifted attention from its border with Palestine’s Gaza to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), being constructed by Ethiopia on the Nile River, to protect its share of water. Egypt and Sudan have for quite some time expressed concerns about the mega-dam’s potential impact on their water share from the river.
Egypt held a third round of trilateral negotiations on the dam with Ethiopia and Sudan in Cairo earlier this week as part of a broader effort by the three countries to resolve the issue. The three nations share the responsibility of ensuring equitable and rational utilization of the Nile River.
Ethiopia has announced that it has filled the dam with water, which is set to produce 5,000 MW of electricity. The dam has been at the centre of a regional dispute ever since Ethiopia launched the project in 2011. The third round of talks concluded on October 24 without any tangible results, though the three countries agreed to hold the next round of technical talks in Addis Ababa.
Egypt and Sudan want a legally binding agreement on operating the dam, while Ethiopia says that any pact should only be advisory. Both countries consider the dam a threat to their vital water supplies, even as Ethiopia considers it essential for development and doubling its electricity production. The two downstream nations fear an adverse impact on water facilities, agricultural land, and the overall availability of Nile waters.
The disputed dam is the largest hydroelectric project in Africa, with a cost of more than 4 billion U.S. dollars. The recently revived talks are the first since negotiations sponsored by the African Union collapsed in April 2021. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had agreed during a meeting in mid-July this year to restart GERD talks and resolve the dispute within four months.
The GERD was designed to hold 74 billion cubic metres of water without affecting the water shares of lower riparian countries. After the fourth filling, the reservoir contained only 42 billion cubic metres of water. The total number of turbines to be installed was reduced from 16 to 13 under Abiy Ahmed’s administration, meaning that the intended 6,000-plus MW power will not be generated.
When Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde addressed a joint Parliamentary session in late September, she stated that the Civil Engineering aspect of GERD would be completed in the current financial year, with over 93% already accomplished. Over 85% of the Nile River’s waters originate from the Ethiopian highlands.
Egypt has been asserting a historical right over the world’s longest river while citing a colonial-era treaty to which Ethiopia was not a signatory. During the second round of discussions in Addis Ababa in September 2023, Ethiopia stated that Egypt’s position made reaching an agreement difficult.
None of the three countries stated why it was not possible to conclude the negotiation. It has been nearly 10 years since the three countries initiated talks on the GERD. In 2015, a framework agreement was reached, enabling Ethiopia to continue construction while negotiations on water usage continued.
The failure of the three countries to reach a binding agreement led Egypt last month to continue its international escalation on the issue of GERD. The North African nation affirmed in its fourth letter regarding the GERD to the U.N. Security Council that “Ethiopia’s unilateral actions regarding the filling and operation of the dam constitute an existential threat to Egypt and a threat to its stability.”
The address was sent by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry to the UNSC on the occasion of Ethiopia announcing the completion of the fourth filling of the GERD. Egypt insists on the need to reach a binding and comprehensive agreement that guarantees the rights and interests of the three countries. Egypt is dealing with the GERD case through diplomatic channels and concerning international law.
According to the engineering and dam technology experts, Cairo will continue to negotiate with the other parties despite not reaching results on the GERD issue. Even international and regional mediation is no longer possible at the present juncture because of Egypt’s involvement in the Gaza war.
In the light of the past rounds of negotiations, the expectations to reach a binding agreement between the three parties remains limited, particularly since Ethiopia has failed to show any positive signs. Addis Ababa might believe that Egypt is currently engaged in the Gaza war and therefore Ethiopia could exploit the situation to further impose its de facto policy when dealing with the GERD issue.
The GERD matter has become more complex after a failed round of talks in Cairo and Addis Ababa in August and September, and more so after Abiy Ahmed announced on September 10 that his country had completed the fourth operation of filling the GERD reservoir. Egypt has
accused Addis Ababa of ignoring the interests and rights of Egypt and Sudan, and their water security guaranteed by the rules of international law.
Egypt, which is already suffering from severe water scarcity, perceives the mega-dam to be an existential threat because the country relies on the Nile for 97% of its water needs. The position of fragile Sudan, which is currently mired in a civil war, has fluctuated in recent years. The U.N. says that Egypt could run out of water by 2025 and parts of Sudan, where the Darfur conflict was essentially a war over access to water, are increasingly becoming vulnerable to drought as a result of climate change.
The experts opine that the tripartite negotiations on the dam offer an opportunity for the three countries to collaborate and find innovative solutions that address the interests of all parties.
Egypt, which is receiving aid material from all over the world for the besieged residents of the Gaza Strip is confronted with the issue of sending it on time through the Rafah border crossing.
The North African nation is looking forward to an amicable solution to the water issue during the crisis.
