By Our Correspondent
NEW DELHI – The campaign for the Assembly elections in four of the five states, which are going to polls, has picked up momentum, as the Congress expects to repeat its government or wrest power at different places with a realisation that the stakes are high for the grand old party ahead of the 2024 general elections. The polling in Mizoram has taken place on November 7. Both as the ruling and the Opposition party, the Congress is facing the Bharatiya Janata Party and other strong regional parties in these states.
The five states – Rajasthan, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana – pose different kinds of challenges to the Congress. The results of Assembly polls are also expected to make an impact on the Lok Sabha elections. While voting will take place in several phases and on different dates in the five states, the results for all of them will be announced on the same day, December 3.
The BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh since November 2005, except for just over a year between 2018 and 2020. Political observers feel that Chouhan will himself be surprised if he wins easily, even though the state has pockets where the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) cadre has done intensive work for decades. Congress is relying on veterans Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh, both of whom are former Chief Ministers.
The two leaders have had some differences over the choice of candidates, but they have restored their friendship in the interest of the party. Kamal Nath, being projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate, is combining soft Hindutva with some hard bargaining. There are rebels in the fray who the party will hope to contain in an atmosphere on anti-incumbency against the state government.
Tribal people make up around 21% of the population, with Madhya Pradesh reporting 30% of the atrocities against Scheduled Tribes across the country. Similar issues of dispossession, poverty, and exploitation link the tribal people of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which was once part of the same state.
In Mizoram, the issue of ST identity is dominating the election campaign with determination of equations, while the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) is fighting the upcoming Zoram People’s Movement. The Congress, once a force in the north-eastern state, was the party the MNF defeated in 2018. The Mizoram campaign is being handled for the Congress at the state level, as the violence in neighbouring BJP-ruled Manipur has made an impact on the people in the state.
The trend of incumbent governments being voted out of power during the last three decades is the biggest challenge which the Congress faces in Rajasthan despite highlighting its achievements in the flagship public welfare schemes. Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has said the party needs to work tirelessly and get people’s blessings to speed up the fourfold progress to 10 times. He has also called upon the party workers to give a concrete shape to his vision for bringing Rajasthan to the front row of developed states.
The electoral fight in Rajasthan between two principal players – the ruling Congress and the Opposition BJP – is influenced by a number of factors related to the leaders, workers, policies, vision and targets of both the parties. The distribution of tickets has been plagued by dissidence and rebellion, while the parties such as Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have announced their plans to contest large numbers of seats for the 200-member House.
While the Congress has floated the slogan, Kaam Kiya Hai Dil Se, Congress Phir Se (We have worked with heart, let there be Congress again), the BJP has responded with Nahi Sahega Rajasthan (Rajasthan will not tolerate). In the murky political waters of the state, the election campaigners have resorted to making allegations and promises, whipping up passions and pointing out shortcomings of the rival parties.
Senior BJP leader and former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje seems to have been sidelined amid the BJP’s strategy to go to polls without projecting a Chief Ministerial face. BJP state president C.P. Joshi has affirmed that this was a proof of “collective leadership” in the party, while the candidates were selected after wide-ranging consultations which had increased people’s confidence and minimised the scope for rebellion.
Both the Congress and the BJP claim to have resolved the issue of factionalism, despite the supporters of rival leaders continuing to count how many of the loyalists of each of them have been given the tickets. In a significant remark, Congress leader Sachin Pilot said he had welcomed with an open mind the proposal for giving tickets even to those who faced the charges of indiscipline in connection with the Congress Legislature Party meeting in September last year.
Farmers’ issues will continue to dominate in the north Rajasthan districts, which have 50 Assembly constituencies with a significant presence of Jat, Muslim and Yadav communities. Though the voters generally cast ballot for a change in the region, the farmers’ belt had witnessed huge protests against the Centre’s Farm Bills. According to the political observers, this may pose a challenge for the BJP despite the withdrawal of the Bills.
In southern Rajasthan, both the Congress and the BJP are set to face the challenge from the newly formed Bharatiya Adivasi Party, to which the two Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) MLAs, Rajkumar Roat and Ram Prasad Dindor, have also shifted. The new regional party is raising the issue of tribal communities being denied rights in the tribal-dominated region and lack of development in the Tribal Sub-Plan area.
The Congress in Telangana is in the midst of a vigorous campaign which appears to have built the party up from the ground in a matter of months. Internal assessments vary from a close contest with the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) to an outright victory. There are interesting inputs that have gone into shaping the campaign. The rhetoric being used by the energetic Pradesh Congress Committee president A. Revanth Reddy and increasingly by Rahul Gandhi calls on the people to vote against the dora palana (feudal rule by landlords) and choose a praja palana (people’s rule).
According to the Congress, certain BRS schemes such as digitising land records have backfired with sections of the population, particularly where lands were given to SCs and STs. The Dalit Bandhu Sheme gives a generous Rs.10 lakh to chosen SC families to promote entrepreneurship, but the Congress believes it has created resentment among those who do not benefit and there are charges of kickbacks as well.
The Congress family, starting from Sonia Gandhi who facilitated the creation of Telangana, is seen as an asset in the state. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has also added spice to the election campaign through her rallies. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has indicated that he will resume conversations with the constituents of the INDIA grouping, who have expressed anger about the national party’s preoccupation with the state elections.
Chhattisgarh has the potential to become a showpiece for tribal rights and social justice, which are the issues close to the stated positions of Rahul Gandhi. The state, carved out of Madhya Pradesh, has a 32% tribal population, but neither the BJP nor the Congress has ever had an Adivasi leadership, unlike in Jharkhand. Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is from the backward classes and there are some tough questions about his priorities, as the Congress did not step in to protect Christian tribals from attacks and intimidation from Hindu right-wing outfits.
The Congress government in Chhattisgarh has also been accused of delaying the implementation of the Panchayats (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, passed in 1996 and intended to give decision-making powers to village councils in tribal-dominated areas. The government notified the rules only in 2022 and even then did not give full autonomy to tribal areas.
The Congress has settled into a soft Hindutva mode and it has more tangible positions regarding setting a good procurement price for paddy, balancing caste equations, and writing off farm loans. In the battle of perceptions, the Congress is ahead as Baghel is the Chief Ministerial face while the BJP has none. Although three-term former Chief Minister Raman Singh is contesting, he is as diminished as other BJP State leaders.
The results of these Assembly elections are going to have implications on the 2024 general elections, as they are likely to decide as to who gets to lead the Opposition. The elections will enable the parties to fine-tune their strategies, work on various combinations and reiterate their commitment to their agenda for attracting the voters. However, the electorate in the five state are somewhat silent, giving rise to a view that this could be an election without a perceptible wave.
