By Our Correspondent
NEW DELHI – In a setback to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AK Party), Turkey’s main Opposition, the Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP) or the Republican People’s Party, has registered a resounding victory in the local elections, in which new Mayors, District Mayors and Mukhtars (local headmen) have been elected for the municipal bodies across the country.
The CHP has registered a nationwide lead of 37%, compared to 36% for AK Party, marking its greatest victory since Erdogan came to power two decades ago. With more than 90% of ballot boxes counted, incumbent Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of CHP was leading by a wide margin in Turkey’s largest city and economic hub. Mansur Yavas, the Mayor of the capital, Ankara, retained his seat with a stunning 25-point difference over his challenger.
In all, the CHP won the municipalities of 36 of Turkey’s 81 provinces, even as the vote was seen as a barometer of popularity of Erdogan, who sought to win back the control of key urban areas which he had lost to the Opposition in elections five years ago. The CHP’s victory in Ankara and Istanbul in 2019 had shattered Erdogan’s image of invincibility.
Some 6.10 crore people, including more than 10 lakh first-time voters, were eligible to cast ballots for all metropolitan municipalities, town and district mayorships as well as neighbourhood administrations.
The voters’ turnout was around 76%, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency, compared to 87% last year.
The main battleground for the President was Istanbul, a city with a population of 1.60 crore, where he was born and raised and where he began his political career as a Mayor in 1994. The result came as a boost for the Opposition, which was left divided and demoralised after a defeat to Erdogan and his AK Party in the last year’s Presidential and Parliamentary elections.
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel told a crowd of his jubilant supporters that the voters across Turkey had decided to establish a new political order in the country. “Today, the voters decided to change the 22-year-old picture and open the door to a new political climate,” he said. On the other hand, Erdogan said in a speech in Ankara that his party would assess the results genuinely, as it had lost momentum throughout the country.
Till the 2023 elections, Erdogan’s charisma continued to resonate with the broader electorate and the prevailing regional crises underscored the demand for strong leadership. As anticipated, the local elections turned out to be competitive, potentially reflecting shifts in Turkey’s political landscape. The polls came at a time when Turkey was grappling with significant events, including the aftermath of the major earthquakes in the south-eastern region in 2023, which claimed over 50,000 lives.
Criticisms over the government’s response to these disasters and the fallout from Erdogan’s controversial video on construction amnesty in the affected province added to the political undercurrents. While promising to go ahead with an economic programme introduced last year with the aim to reduce inflation, Erdogan said his party would correct its mistakes and redress its shortcomings. “Unfortunately, nine months after our victory in the general elections, we could not get the result we wanted in the local election test,” he said.
Interestingly, Imamoglu, 53, a popular figure being considered as a possible future challenger to Erdogan, ran without the support of some of the parties which helped him to victory in 2019. Both the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party and the nationalist IYI Party fielded their own candidates in the race. A six-party Opposition alliance led by CHP disintegrated after it failed to oust Erdogan in the 2023 election.
Born in a small village in the Anatolian Erzincan province, Imamoglu became Istanbul’s 32nd Mayor in 2019. He ran as a prospective Vice-President to Opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu in the last year’s Presidential election.
In the election results, the AK Party and its main ally gave up the Mayor’s office in 19 key municipalities, including big cities Bursa and Balikesir in the industrialised north-west, possibly reflecting strains on the voters who are mainly wage earners. The CHP led nationwide by almost 1% of the votes, a first in 35 years.
Political analysts in Turkey said it was Erdogan’s severest election defeat since coming to national power in 2002. The economic strains, including nearly 70% inflation and a slowdown in growth brought on by an aggressive monetary-tightening regime, might have moved the voters to punish the AK Party this time, as the economy turned out to be a decisive factor.
Erdogan’s handling of the economy appeared to loom largest in the race, with households battered by runaway inflation and the cratering value of the currency. Despite Erdogan’s appointment last year of a well-respected economic team and his decision to allow the Central Bank to raise interest rates to their highest level in decades, inflation has remained at about 70%.
The main pro-Kurdish party, which backed Imamoglu in 2019, fielded its own candidate under the banner of Halklarin Esitlik ve Demokrasi Partisi (DEM Party) this time, but many Kurds put aside party loyalty and voted for Imamoglu again. In the mainly Kurdish south-east, DEM Party reaffirmed its strength, winning 10 provinces. The government had replaced pro-Kurdish Mayors with state-appointed “trustees” following previous elections over alleged militant ties.
After the declaration of local election results, Erdogan not only has fewer AK Party-aligned local governments to rely on, but also has a potential challenger in the next Presidential contest whose clout and popularity just got a lot bigger. According to the analysts, Imamoglu is going to be a formidable opponent, as he ran against all odds this time.
