By Hasanul Banna
Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Rampur (Western UP)—There is no political wave in 2024 elections unlike in 2014 when there was a strong wave in favour of BJP in Western Uttar Pradesh that went to polls in the first phase on Friday.
Religious issues and communal that had marked the 2014 Parlimentary elections don’t seem to be a factor this time. Moreover, voters are maintaining total silence about which party or candidate they would vote for. This is quite surprising in this part of the country where voters were always very vocal, at least on political issues. People now have kept their mouth shut when it pertains to the ruling party because they apprehend reprisals from the ruling party leaders. So, the voter’s silence this time around may spring a surprise.
The silence of the “Godi” media about any election wave also indicates an undercurrent of support or wave in favour of opposition alliance candidates. Has there been a wave in support of the ruling clique, the “Godi” media would have gone ga-ga over it.
The voters went to polling booths in eight Lok Sabha constituencies in UP in the first phase of elections on Friday without any wave. Under such a situation, both NDA and INDIA bloc candidates are facing a tough fight
While BJP seems to be having an upper hand in Pilibhit from where Varun Gandhi was replaced, and Azam Khan’s bastion of Rampur from where Samajwavi Party has fielded a cleric and political novice Mohibullah Nadvi, SP candidate Iqra Hasan, a young woman belonging to the region’s political family, and SP’s Ruchi Veera from Moradabad are in a very strong position. Nadvi worked as Imam in the Parliament mosque in New Delhi before he was declared as SP nominee from Rampur. SP is a part of INDIA alliance.
Muzaffarnagar that witnessed India’s worst communal riots in 2013 faces direct fight between BJP and SP. While BJP has fielded Union Minister Sanjeev Balian, accused in 2013 riots, SP has fielded five time MLA and former Rajya Sabha MP Harender Malik. Imran Masood is the Congress candidate from Saharanpur, challenging BJP’s Raghav Lakhanpal Sharma. Masood has lost three elections from Saharanpur and is trying his luck for the fourth time. Raghav had won from Saharanpur in 2014 and 2019.
SC (reserved) seat of Nagina is facing four cornered contest with Bhim Army leader Chandrashekhar Azad ‘Ravan’ contesting from his Azad Samaj Party, SP having fielded Manoj Kumar, BJP fielded Om Kumar and BSP Surendra Pal Singh. Azad is relying on the support of Muslim (40 percent of the total electorates in the constituency) and Dalit voters (20 percent). This is Azad’s first electoral battle.
From Bijnor Lok Sabha seat, BSP has fielded Jat leader Bijendra Chaudhary and RLD, which has an electoral understanding with NDA, has fielded Gujjar leader Chandan Chauhan. SP has fielded Deepak Saini, thus making the contest tri-cornered in this constituency.
Jayant Chaudhary’s political future?
The political future of RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary, who left INDIA alliance and joined NDA on the eve of elections, will be determined by the victory of RLD and BJP candidates in Western UP’s Jatland because Jats are strongly against Modi and BJP due to anti-farmer policies of the BJP government. Will Jayant be able to quell the anti-Modi anger among Jat voters because farm leader Rakesh Tikait has been mobilising Jat voters against the BJP? Former governor Satyapal malik, a Jat from Western UP, has also been giving statements against the BJP government. However, only the election results will prove the Jayant’s influence and also his political future.
Four-cornered contest in Nagina
Bhim Army leader Chandrashekhar Azad ‘Ravan’, who is single-handedly challenging BSP, BJP and SP from Nagina, is dependent on support of 40 percent Muslim voters and 20 percent Dalit voters. But his calculations may go wrong given that the contest has become quadrangular, with BSP, BJP and SP also in the fray. In such a situation, it will not be easier for Azad to win the seat. Mayawati and Akhilesh are accusing Azad of giving Nagina seat on a platter to BJP because of split in anti-BJP votes among three candidates.
SP to defeat itself in Rampur
The three constituent parties of the INDIA alliance have made things easier for BJP in Rampur as SP has fielded a political novice and cleric Mohibullah Nadvi. He has no political support, except those of his community called Turks. INDIA alliance parties – Congress and AAP – are not cooperating with him. Azam Khan’s supporters are also reported to be not helping him. BSP candidate claims that he has support of Azam Khan who is in jail.
Apart from this, Mahmood Pracha, an activist and Supreme Court lawyer, has jumped in the fray as an independent candidate and challenged Mohibullah Nadvi. Every vote that Pracha gets by dividing the Muslim votes again will help BJP. However, Nadvi hopes to win the seat where Muslims account for 55 percent of the total votes.
*The article was first published in the Madhyamam.
